a random pull of 660,594 payments, matched to the sky above them

Does the weather change how people pay?
Less than you'd think.

A random pull of payments set up through the Resolvah platform, matched to the hourly weather at the consumer's zip code. Each one is compared with what that same place, weekday, hour and month normally produces, so a rainy December evening in Minneapolis is only ever compared with other December evenings in Minneapolis.

Dollars committed$241.9M660,594 payment setups analyzed
Engagement events3.4MLogins, page views, opens, replies, calls
Weather stations1,691Hourly airport observations, nearest to each zip
Biggest weather effect5%Snowy hours. Everything else is smaller.

Scroll. The sky changes with each section, and the storm section gets loud.

The short answer

No kind of weather moved payments more than five percent.

Each bar is how far payment setups ran above or below usual under that condition. The thin line is the range we are 95% sure about; if it touches "usual", the bar is grey and the effect could be chance.

Payment setups versus usual, by condition

-15%-10%-5%usual+5%+10%+15%cool day, high 40–60°Fcool day, high 40–60°F: +2% vs usual · 95% range +1% to +3%+2%hot day, high 88°F+hot day, high 88°F+: +1% vs usual · 95% range 0% to +1%+1%rainy hourrainy hour: +1% vs usual · 95% range 0% to +3% · 40,485 setups in rainy hours · could be chance+1%thunderstorm hourthunderstorm hour: 0% vs usual · 95% range -3% to +3% · 7,147 setups · could be chance0%soaking day, 1in+ of rainsoaking day, 1in+ of rain: 0% vs usual · 95% range -2% to +3% · 11,482 setups · could be chance0%cold day, high below 40°Fcold day, high below 40°F: 0% vs usual · 95% range -2% to +1% · 24,917 setups · could be chance0%snow daysnow day: -3% vs usual · 95% range -7% to 0% · 13,321 setups · could be chance-3%snowy hoursnowy hour: -5% vs usual · 95% range -12% to +2% · 2,915 setups · could be chance-5%
clearly above usualclearly below usualcould be chance95% range
Only two bars clear the noise, and both are tiny. Cool days run +2% and hot days +1%. Rain, thunderstorms, soaking days and cold days sit at usual. Snow is the one thing that leans negative, and even it stays inside a few percent.
Rain

Rain is a wash. People pay through it.

Does heavier rain matter more?

-15%-10%-5%usual+5%+10%+15%light rainlight rain: +1% vs usual · 95% range 0% to +3% · 32,134 setups · could be chance+1%moderate rainmoderate rain: 0% vs usual · 95% range -3% to +3% · 5,941 setups · could be chance0%heavy rainheavy rain: +1% vs usual · 95% range -5% to +8% · 2,410 setups · could be chance+1%thunderstormthunderstorm: 0% vs usual · 95% range -3% to +3% · 7,147 setups · could be chance0%
It does not. Light, moderate and heavy rain all land within a point of usual. Rainy hours as a whole ran +1% on setups and +2% on dollars committed, neither clear of chance.

What rain does to engagement

-15%-10%-5%usual+5%+10%+15%page viewspage views: 0% vs usual · 95% range -1% to +1% · could be chance0%email opensemail opens: 0% vs usual · 95% range -4% to +4% · could be chance0%portal loginsportal logins: -1% vs usual · 95% range -2% to 0% · could be chance-1%inbound callsinbound calls: -1% vs usual · 95% range -7% to +5% · could be chance-1%text repliestext replies: -4% vs usual · 95% range -7% to -1% · 16,171 replies in rainy hours-4%
clearly above usualclearly below usualcould be chance95% range
Text replies are the one channel that feels the rain, down 4% in rainy hours. Email opens do not move. Agencies themselves send 4% fewer emails when it rains, which is more than consumers react.
Myth: rainy Friday night−2%Rainy Friday evenings versus dry ones. Range −8% to +3%. Not special.
Myth: heavy rain keeps people home+1%Setups in heavy-rain hours. Range −5% to +8%.
Myth: storms stop payments0%Setups during thunderstorm hours, 7,147 of them. Dead flat.
The day after rain0%No catch-up bump on the first dry day. Nobody was waiting for it to stop.
Snow

Snow changes what people do, not whether they pay.

A snow day, channel by channel

-30%-20%-10%usual+10%+20%+30%inbound callsinbound calls: +8% vs usual · 95% range -1% to +17% · could be chance+8%email opensemail opens: 0% vs usual · 95% range -4% to +4% · could be chance0%page viewspage views: -2% vs usual · 95% range -4% to 0% · could be chance-2%payment setupspayment setups: -3% vs usual · 95% range -7% to 0% · could be chance-3%portal loginsportal logins: -4% vs usual · 95% range -5% to -3%-4%text repliestext replies: -17% vs usual · 95% range -23% to -7% · 5,905 replies on snow days-17%
clearly above usualclearly below usualcould be chance95% range
Payments slip 3%. Text replies fall 17%. The people who were going to pay still pay. The casual replies are what disappear. At night during snow, text replies drop by more than half.

Text replies on a snow day, by how used to snow the area is

-60%-40%-20%usual+20%snow is rare (<3 days/yr)snow is rare (<3 days/yr): -46% vs usual · 95% range -59% to -32% · 711 stations, mostly the South-46%some snow (3–12 days/yr)some snow (3–12 days/yr): -22% vs usual · 95% range -34% to -10% · 275 stations-22%snowy (12+ days/yr)snowy (12+ days/yr): -15% vs usual · 95% range -22% to -6% · 705 stations-15%
A snow day in Atlanta is not a snow day in Buffalo. Where snow is rare, text replies nearly halve. Where it is routine, they dip 15%. Payments in rare-snow regions actually ran +7%, though that one could be chance.

What kind of payment gets made in a snowy hour

-30%-20%-10%usual+10%+20%+30%+40%+50%had a declined installmenthad a declined installment: +12% vs usual · 95% range -18% to +43% · 178 setups · could be chance+12%pay todaypay today: -4% vs usual · 95% range -9% to 0% · 2,021 setups · could be chance-4%post-dated paymentpost-dated payment: -7% vs usual · 95% range -21% to +8% · 894 setups · could be chance-7%payment planpayment plan: -7% vs usual · 95% range -27% to +14% · 576 setups · could be chance-7%pay in fullpay in full: -7% vs usual · 95% range -15% to -1% · 827 setups-7%
Pay-in-full drops 7% and is the only clear mover. Declined installments lean up 12% but the range is wide. Read it as: fewer casual full payments in snow, and the people who do commit are a little more stretched.
Named storms and cold snaps

A cold snap delays the money. A hurricane loses it.

Averages hide the extremes, so here are the biggest events in the window, one at a time. Each line is daily payment setups in the affected states versus the usual for that weekday in the surrounding weeks. The shaded band is the event.

Delayed, then caught up

Gulf Coast snowstorm

January 21–23, 2025 · TX, LA, MS, AL, FL, GA

Payments during-43%dollars -35%
The week after+44%versus the same weekdays nearby
2×usual-50%2025-01-11 · 183 setups (+97% vs usual weekday) · logins -76%2025-01-12 · 57 setups (+45% vs usual weekday) · logins -50%2025-01-13 · 47 setups (-60% vs usual weekday) · logins -5%2025-01-14 · 141 setups (+28% vs usual weekday) · logins -22%2025-01-15 · 362 setups (+135% vs usual weekday) · logins -30%2025-01-16 · 344 setups (+34% vs usual weekday) · logins -1%2025-01-17 · 45 setups (-81% vs usual weekday) · logins +111%2025-01-18 · 56 setups (-41% vs usual weekday) · logins +27%2025-01-19 · 35 setups (-10% vs usual weekday) · logins -8%2025-01-20 · 81 setups (-34% vs usual weekday) · logins -22%2025-01-21 · 68 setups (-44% vs usual weekday) · logins -17%2025-01-22 · 58 setups (-64% vs usual weekday) · logins +16%2025-01-23 · 196 setups (-30% vs usual weekday) · logins -20%2025-01-24 · 333 setups (+28% vs usual weekday) · logins -49%2025-01-25 · 89 setups (-23% vs usual weekday) · logins +104%2025-01-26 · 50 setups (+12% vs usual weekday) · logins +92%2025-01-27 · 334 setups (+169% vs usual weekday) · logins +1%2025-01-28 · 233 setups (+86% vs usual weekday) · logins -12%2025-01-29 · 191 setups (+16% vs usual weekday) · logins +9%2025-01-30 · 378 setups (+33% vs usual weekday) · logins +31%2025-01-31 · 355 setups (+35% vs usual weekday) · logins +2%2025-02-01 · 214 setups (-19% vs usual weekday) · logins -68%2025-02-02 · 122 setups (-17% vs usual weekday) · logins -67%2025-02-03 · 323 setups (-39% vs usual weekday) · logins -23%2025-02-04 · 181 setups (-55% vs usual weekday) · logins -42%2025-02-05 · 259 setups (-35% vs usual weekday) · logins -8%2025-02-06 · 322 setups (-29% vs usual weekday) · logins -27%event10 days before2 weeks after

About 200 setups a day in these states.

Delayed, then caught up

January 2025 arctic blast

January 19–22, 2025 · TX through the Midwest to NY

Payments during-33%dollars -41%
The week after+24%versus the same weekdays nearby
2×usual-50%2025-01-09 · 47 setups (-85% vs usual weekday) · logins -19%2025-01-10 · 257 setups (-21% vs usual weekday) · logins -42%2025-01-11 · 231 setups (+72% vs usual weekday) · logins -70%2025-01-12 · 100 setups (+56% vs usual weekday) · logins -36%2025-01-13 · 92 setups (-51% vs usual weekday) · logins +11%2025-01-14 · 201 setups (+17% vs usual weekday) · logins -23%2025-01-15 · 466 setups (+92% vs usual weekday) · logins +8%2025-01-16 · 379 setups (+20% vs usual weekday) · logins -22%2025-01-17 · 148 setups (-54% vs usual weekday) · logins +72%2025-01-18 · 72 setups (-48% vs usual weekday) · logins +34%2025-01-19 · 57 setups (-11% vs usual weekday) · logins -20%2025-01-20 · 122 setups (-36% vs usual weekday) · logins -13%2025-01-21 · 118 setups (-35% vs usual weekday) · logins +5%2025-01-22 · 167 setups (-33% vs usual weekday) · logins +34%2025-01-23 · 260 setups (-23% vs usual weekday) · logins +8%2025-01-24 · 400 setups (+18% vs usual weekday) · logins -40%2025-01-25 · 156 setups (-1% vs usual weekday) · logins +84%2025-01-26 · 72 setups (+2% vs usual weekday) · logins +68%2025-01-27 · 409 setups (+114% vs usual weekday) · logins +5%2025-01-28 · 309 setups (+65% vs usual weekday) · logins +3%2025-01-29 · 306 setups (+21% vs usual weekday) · logins -9%2025-01-30 · 426 setups (+25% vs usual weekday) · logins +21%2025-01-31 · 421 setups (+24% vs usual weekday) · logins +13%2025-02-01 · 241 setups (-29% vs usual weekday) · logins -49%2025-02-02 · 156 setups (-22% vs usual weekday) · logins -40%2025-02-03 · 411 setups (-37% vs usual weekday) · logins -32%2025-02-04 · 269 setups (-46% vs usual weekday) · logins -26%2025-02-05 · 355 setups (-34% vs usual weekday) · logins -5%event10 days before2 weeks after

About 263 setups a day in these states.

Lost, no catch-up

Hurricane Beryl

July 8–10, 2024 · Houston, TX

Payments during-53%dollars -73%
The week after-12%versus the same weekdays nearby
2×usual-50%2024-06-28 · 4 setups (-45% vs usual weekday) · logins -14%2024-06-29 · 2 setups (-41% vs usual weekday) · logins -7%2024-06-30 · 2 setups (-27% vs usual weekday) · logins -12%2024-07-01 · 6 setups (-58% vs usual weekday) · logins -45%2024-07-02 · 26 setups (+88% vs usual weekday) · logins -45%2024-07-03 · 9 setups (+8% vs usual weekday) · logins -26%2024-07-04 · 1 setups (-81% vs usual weekday) · logins -84%2024-07-05 · 3 setups (-48% vs usual weekday) · logins -40%2024-07-06 · 2 setups (-27% vs usual weekday) · logins +22%2024-07-07 · 0 setups (-100% vs usual weekday) · logins +19%2024-07-08 · 9 setups (-37% vs usual weekday) · logins -7%2024-07-09 · 1 setups (-92% vs usual weekday) · logins -62%2024-07-10 · 6 setups (-12% vs usual weekday) · logins +40%2024-07-11 · 5 setups (+18% vs usual weekday) · logins +21%2024-07-12 · 4 setups (-16% vs usual weekday) · logins -8%2024-07-13 · 5 setups (+82% vs usual weekday) · logins +12%2024-07-14 · 0 setups (-100% vs usual weekday) · logins -25%2024-07-15 · 7 setups (-51% vs usual weekday) · logins -38%2024-07-16 · 14 setups (-1% vs usual weekday) · logins +94%2024-07-17 · 7 setups (+3% vs usual weekday) · logins +44%2024-07-18 · 5 setups (+18% vs usual weekday) · logins +117%2024-07-19 · 3 setups (-37% vs usual weekday) · logins +67%2024-07-20 · 2 setups (-27% vs usual weekday) · logins +8%2024-07-21 · 1 setups (+100% vs usual weekday) · logins -53%2024-07-22 · 3 setups (-79% vs usual weekday) · logins -22%2024-07-23 · 14 setups (-1% vs usual weekday) · logins -42%2024-07-24 · 2 setups (-71% vs usual weekday) · logins -49%event10 days before2 weeks after

Thin sample: about 7 setups a day.

Lost, no catch-up

January 2024 arctic blast

January 13–17, 2024 · TX through the Midwest

Payments during-53%dollars -56%
The week after-41%versus the same weekdays nearby
2×usual-50%2024-01-03 · 15 setups (-26% vs usual weekday) · logins -3%2024-01-04 · 27 setups (+76% vs usual weekday) · logins +67%2024-01-05 · 10 setups (-47% vs usual weekday) · logins -28%2024-01-06 · 7 setups (+25% vs usual weekday) · logins -18%2024-01-07 · 5 setups (+82% vs usual weekday) · logins +16%2024-01-08 · 12 setups (-42% vs usual weekday) · logins -52%2024-01-09 · 15 setups (-57% vs usual weekday) · logins -61%2024-01-10 · 5 setups (-75% vs usual weekday) · logins -40%2024-01-11 · 10 setups (-35% vs usual weekday) · logins -25%2024-01-12 · 23 setups (+21% vs usual weekday) · logins +36%2024-01-13 · 1 setups (-81% vs usual weekday) · logins -33%2024-01-14 · 0 setups (-100% vs usual weekday) · logins -12%2024-01-15 · 8 setups (-62% vs usual weekday) · logins +1%2024-01-16 · 16 setups (-54% vs usual weekday) · logins -21%2024-01-17 · 14 setups (-30% vs usual weekday) · logins -38%2024-01-18 · 20 setups (+30% vs usual weekday) · logins 0%2024-01-19 · 14 setups (-22% vs usual weekday) · logins -29%2024-01-20 · 2 setups (-64% vs usual weekday) · logins +6%2024-01-21 · 0 setups (-100% vs usual weekday) · logins -14%2024-01-22 · 11 setups (-47% vs usual weekday) · logins -27%2024-01-23 · 13 setups (-63% vs usual weekday) · logins -13%2024-01-24 · 9 setups (-55% vs usual weekday) · logins -57%2024-01-25 · 4 setups (-73% vs usual weekday) · logins -42%2024-01-26 · 25 setups (+39% vs usual weekday) · logins +19%2024-01-27 · 12 setups (+115% vs usual weekday) · logins +45%2024-01-28 · 6 setups (+118% vs usual weekday) · logins +5%2024-01-29 · 71 setups (+241% vs usual weekday) · logins +164%2024-01-30 · 116 setups (+233% vs usual weekday) · logins +120%2024-01-31 · 57 setups (+187% vs usual weekday) · logins +123%event10 days before2 weeks after

About 17 setups a day.

Two different responses. After a freeze, the money comes back within a week, almost dollar for dollar: wait, then resume outreach. After a hurricane, the recovery week is still below normal, so the accounts in those zips probably need an easier offer, not more reminders.
Hot and cold

Temperature is flat, even when it is unseasonable.

Payment setups by the day's high

-10%-5%usual+5%+10%cool (40–60°F)cool (40–60°F): +2% vs usual · 95% range +1% to +3%+2%hot (88°F+)hot (88°F+): +1% vs usual · 95% range 0% to +1%+1%warm (75–88°F)warm (75–88°F): 0% vs usual · 95% range -1% to 0% · could be chance0%cold (<40°F)cold (<40°F): 0% vs usual · 95% range -2% to +1% · could be chance0%mild (60–75°F)mild (60–75°F): -1% vs usual · 95% range -2% to -1%-1%
clearly above usualclearly below usualcould be chance95% range

Unusually hot or cold for that place and month

-10%-5%usual+5%+10%much warmer than normal (15°F+)much warmer than normal (15°F+): 0% vs usual · 95% range -2% to +2% · 21,577 setups · could be chance0%warmer than normal (5–15°F)warmer than normal (5–15°F): 0% vs usual · 95% range 0% to +1% · could be chance0%much colder than normal (15°F+)much colder than normal (15°F+): 0% vs usual · 95% range -2% to +2% · 26,386 setups · could be chance0%colder than normal (5–15°F)colder than normal (5–15°F): -1% vs usual · 95% range -2% to 0% · could be chance-1%
A 45°F day in Miami and a 45°F day in Minneapolis are different events, so this compares each day with its own local normal. Still nothing. The one clear mover: on days 15°F or more above normal, dollars collected ran +9%.
Who reacts to weather

Snow lands hardest on medical balances and small balances.

Each cell is that group's payment setups under the condition versus that group's own normal. Green is reliably up, terra-cotta reliably down, grey could be chance.

ConsumersSetupsRainy hoursSnowy hours
Type of debt
financial492,684+1%0% to +2%0%-8% to +6%
medical72,722+2%-5% to +10%-16%-26% to -5%
housing19,3920%-5% to +5%-6%-20% to +8%
other52,340+1%-6% to +8%-3%-16% to +10%
Balance owed
$1–10041,564+5%-2% to +11%-14%-29% to -2%
$100–25042,479-3%-8% to +1%-5%-17% to +9%
$250–50053,698+1%-3% to +4%+11%-10% to +31%
$500–1k79,328+2%-1% to +6%0%-17% to +18%
$1k–2.5k135,066+1%-2% to +4%-15%-26% to -3%
$2.5k+185,435+1%-1% to +3%-4%-21% to +13%

Portal logins in snow, by device

-15%-10%-5%usual+5%+10%+15%phone or tablet · snow dayphone or tablet · snow day: -2% vs usual · 95% range -4% to -1% · 53,588 logins-2%computer · snow daycomputer · snow day: -4% vs usual · 95% range -7% to -1% · 26,108 logins-4%phone or tablet · snowy hourphone or tablet · snowy hour: -5% vs usual · 95% range -9% to -3% · 11,807 logins-5%computer · snowy hourcomputer · snowy hour: -5% vs usual · 95% range -12% to +4% · 5,913 logins · could be chance-5%
Phones and computers fall together. Snow is not a "people are away from their desk" effect. Fewer people log in from anywhere, and the ones who do are slightly more likely to pay: setups per login run +1% in snow and +5% on soaking days.
Rain moves nobody in particular. The clear snow effects are male consumers −11%, medical debt −16%, balances under $100 −14%, and balances of $1k to $2.5k −15%. Everything else is inside the noise.
What to do with this

Treat the forecast as a footnote.

one

On a snow day, email it

Text replies fall 17% on snow days, nearly half where snow is rare. Email opens hold. Hold the text campaign and send it the day after.

two

After a freeze, wait

Payments came back +24% to +44% the week after the big cold snaps. No need to chase; the money is on its way.

three

After a hurricane, re-offer

The week after a hurricane stayed below normal. Accounts in those zips need an easier plan, not another reminder.

four

Ignore the rain

Rain, thunderstorms and heat do not move payments. If a campaign is ready, send it. What does move payments is the calendar, and that is a report of its own.

see it on your own accounts

Every number here came from a Resolvah portal. Yours could be next.

Resolvah's virtual collector runs the outreach, the portal and the payments, and reports on all of it. In a one-hour working session we walk through it on accounts that look like yours, apply the findings in this report to your own portfolio, and show you which days, hours and offers move your money. You leave with that whether or not you ever buy anything.

Schedule a demo One hour. You leave knowing what moves your own accounts.
How this was measured. Stated so you can judge it.
  • A random pull of 660,594 payment setups and 3.4 million engagement events from the Resolvah platform.
  • Weather is the hourly observation from the nearest airport station to each consumer's zip code (1,691 stations, median 14 miles away), from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet ASOS archive.
  • "Usual" is what that station, weekday, hour and calendar month normally produces, so seasons, geography, the weekly cycle and the daily cycle are all removed before comparing.
  • Ranges are 95% intervals from resampling weather stations. A bar whose range touches usual is drawn grey and should be read as no measurable effect.
  • Named-storm figures compare daily setups in the affected states with the same weekdays in the surrounding weeks. Two of the four events have thin samples and are labeled.